WP: The connection between assassination attempt and success in politics. What do Fico and Bolsonaro cases tell us about Trump's future.

Former President Donald Trump on an outdoor scene in Pennsylvania, surrounded by Secret Service agents, with blood flowing from the corner of his ear. It seems disturbed, but defiantly, with the fist tightened in the air while it is hastily removed from the agents. An image that the whole globe already knows. The candidate of the Republicans in the November presidential elections, Trump survived an assassination attempt, after which the alleged attacker was shot dead, a participant in the rally was killed and two others were seriously injured. The attack on Trump has shocked the world and upset an already volatile and hot American election cycle.

An analysis given to the public by the American daily The Washington Post, entitled "Two previous assassination attempts that shadow Trump's shooting" demonstrate, with concrete examples from Brazil and Slovakia, that the victims received wind in their rhetoric, and even won the elections , but the political scene did not calm down. 

"A sick attempt"

President Biden described the attempt to assassinate on Saturday night as "sick", saying that "there is no room in America for this type of violence." He later spoke to Trump. The world leaders in the whole political spectrum condemned the attack and expressed their relief that Trump was not seriously injured. A number of Trump's allies have immediately accused American democrats and everyone who suggests that Trump's ultra-nationalism is a danger to American democracy of being complicit.

 In this rhetorical leap, certain leaders from other parts were joined in an ideological alliance at least partially with Trump: Argentine President Javier Milei used the opportunity to denounce the "authoritarian agenda" of the "international left".

 Salvadorian President Nayib Bukele, for a long time by the criticisms of the Biden Administration and human rights defenders regarding his quasi-autocratic consolidation, simply addressed a question from a single word on social networks: "Democracy?".

Two reactions to some foreign leaders could be the most significant. Here's why

But, of the foreign leaders, the reactions of the current Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and the former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro can be the most significant. Just two months ago, Fico, a popist often compared to Trump, was shot and almost killed by a septuagenary attacker, a "lone wolf", who did not like Fico's policy.

 

The controversial Slovak leader came out of convalescence, even more fierce about the treachery of his ideological opponents. Robert Fico revealed on Sunday the similarities he sees between the attack against Donald Trump and the one whose victim was two months ago.

 

"The scenario is that drawn to Xerox," the Slovak government chief on his website estimated. Fico, 59, was hit by four bullets drawn from a short distance after a relocated meeting of the government that had been held in the center of Slovakia, on May 15. He underwent several surgery and stayed in intensive internet before resuming his activity last week. He accused the Slovak opposition of the feed of hatred against him.

 

"If Donald Trump's aggressor had spoken Slovak, he was enough to read from (local) Dennik N, SME or Anktuality newspapers, to feed his desire to" solve ", Fico estimated. "Trump's political opponents are trying to silence him and, when they fail, they so much the public that a bitter puts his hand on a firearm," according to Fico. 

Bolsonaro model

 In 2018, Bolsonaro, when a candidate for the Presidency of Brazil, was stabbed by another lonely wolf attacker during a campaign meeting. The incident aroused the public sympathy with Bolsonaro, an antisystem and intransigent nationalist, such as Trump, and propelled him to power.

Until Sunday morning, Fico and Bolsonaro publicly embraced Trump and denounced his opponents. "It is a xerox copy of the scenario," Fico wrote on Social Media, suggesting that he and former US president were the victims of an environment in which their enemies feed the public hysteria.

Bolsonaro expressed his "solidarity" with Trump on Twitter and said he would meet him at the inauguration-a reflection of overwhelming confidence among the right-watters that the incident will turn into a political advantage for the former president.

The son of Bolsonaro, Eduardo, was echoed this feeling, responding to a tweet of Trump's son, Eric, with the message that Trump was "already chosen" and sending to Bolsonaro's stabbing in 2018. "We have experience with such a situation. , we know the enemy - and the same, "Eduardo wrote. 

Trump's rhetoric took over the language of far right conspiracy theories

Trump's critics draw attention to his own incendiary rhetoric; They link him to the political violence that has marked life in the United States in the last decade. 

 

Trump's rhetoric has taken over the language of far -right conspiracy theories related to the mass shootings in El Paso, the Synagogue in Pennsylvania and the broader mobilization of armed and far right white supremacy. It fueled the violence from the assault on the chapter committed by its supporters on January 6, 2021. 

 

"Trump himself often uses an exciting language, after taking over in 2017 describing the state of the nation as" American Carnage ", wrote editorialist Michael Scherer in Washington Post. "Since then, he called his" parasitic "political enemies, described some migrants without documents as" animals "and warned of a" blood bath "if he would not win in November," the Washington Post recalls. 

A political precedent that could influence American policy in the coming months

 Some analysts see a political precedent that could influence American policy in the coming months. "All Brazilians instantly thought about the knife attack that propelled Bolsonaro to victory in 2018," said Thiago Krause, a historian from Rio de Janeiro, as a reaction to Trump's assassination.

"This will give Trump a major impulse and will radically radicalize his electoral basin." It can be said that Bolsonaro and his camp are more dissatisfied now, when they are out of power, than before they win it. After Bolsonaro lost his candidacy for re-election in 2022, some of his supporters had an insurrection attempt in parallel with January 6, taking for a short time the federal buildings in Brasília.

They were dispersed and driven, and the consequences threw the former Brazilian president and his key allies in a criminal investigation and charges that could send him to prison. 

The complex of persecution

 Like Bolsonaro and Fico, Trump has a powerful persecution complex. They have all cataloged the legal cases against them as witch hunters put up by evil power, regardless of the severity and substance of the accusations and the apparent independence of the judicial system in their countries.

Fico, who was four times prime minister, was dismissed after the assassination of a journalist who had investigated the connections of his associates with the Italian mafia. He returned to power on the basis of a platform that combines a version of left -wing populism with far -right nationalism.

After he was almost killed, Fico's allies said the press and opposition were behind the incident. "The accusation of the opposition, the ideological and political opponents, the media or the non-governmental sector triggers a spiral of fear, hatred and possible violence," a statement signed by representatives of the main groups for civil rights in Slovakia shows.

Even last week, after returning to public functions, Fico clearly expressed his challenge. "Dear progressive liberal press and opposition, I'm sorry I survived, but I returned," he posted on Facebook. 

Brazil, violence, armed attack, United States, Slovakia, Joe Biden, presidential elections, Donald Trump, assassination attempt, Robert Fico, Jair Bolsonaro